Upper Deck Options

Executive Summary: This research note analyzes Vivos Inc. (RDGL) stock performance in 2023, focusing on a potential shift in investor sentiment. We observe a narrowing of the horizontal price range and a pivot towards an upward bias in the vertical range, suggesting a growing optimism compared to 2021. While acknowledging data limitations and potential alternative explanations, we believe this analysis warrants further investigation.

Methodology

In almost every case, a stock price chart is presented as the price as a function of time; mathematically, as P(t), where P is the price of the stock and t is the time.

However, the use of the x-axis for a linear, uniform scale such as time makes price charts one dimensional. However, by slightly modifying the framework by making price as a function of its “mobility” or its rate of change over the established time unit (in this case by week), one can establish a sentiment-based canvas. Mathematically, the price would operate as a function of its return over the established time, as follows:

Return=[(Current Price−Previous Price)/Previous Price]×100

Fundamentally, this approach can be valuable for identifying trends, momentum, and potential turning points in the market.

Observations

• Horizontal Range Narrowing: RDGL’s price movement in 2023 exhibited a tighter daily range of +/- 10% compared to +/- 10% in 2021. This decreased volatility could indicate reduced uncertainty and increased confidence in the stock’s direction among investors.
• Vertical Range Pivot: Notably, the daily price change distribution shifted from a +/- 10% range in 2021 to a -10%/20% range in 2023. This asymmetry suggests a higher potential for upward movement while maintaining downside risk similar to the previous year. This could be interpreted as a bullish bias in investor sentiment.

Year-by-Year Assessment

Each year brought with it a distinct shift in market sentiment as follows:

• 2019
  • The majority of the adjusted close prices were concentrated between 2 cents and 4 cents.
  • Percentage gain/loss values mostly ranged between -20% and 10%.

2020

• The majority of the adjusted close prices were concentrated between 2 cents and 4 cents.

• Percentage gain/loss values mostly ranged between -20% and 10%.

• 2021
  • The majority of the adjusted close prices were concentrated between 2 cents and 4 cents.
  • Percentage gain/loss values mostly ranged between -20% and 10%.

• 2022
  • The majority of the adjusted close prices were concentrated between 2 cents and 4 cents.
  • Percentage gain/loss values mostly ranged between -20% and 10%.

• 2023
  • The majority of the adjusted close prices were concentrated between 2 cents and 4 cents.
  • Percentage gain/loss values mostly ranged between -10% and 20%.

Hypothesis

Based on these observations, we hypothesize that investor sentiment towards RDGL began to improve in 2023 compared to 2021. This potential shift could be driven by various factors, including:

• Company-specific developments: Successful product launches, strategic partnerships, or positive clinical trial results could have bolstered investor confidence.
• Market conditions: An overall shift towards the biotechnology sector or improved industry trends could have positively impacted RDGL.
• Investor positioning: Increased analyst coverage, rising institutional ownership, or retail investor interest could contribute to a more optimistic outlook.

Risks and Caveats

It’s important to acknowledge the limitations of this analysis:

• Limited data: Analyzing solely price data provides an incomplete picture. Incorporating additional data points such as trading volume, analyst sentiment, and macroeconomic factors would strengthen the analysis.
• Short timeframe: One year of data might not be sufficient to definitively conclude a sustained sentiment shift. Examining longer-term historical trends would provide a more robust context.
• Alternative explanations: The observed changes could have alternative explanations unrelated to sentiment. Market cycles, sector rotations, or specific events could also influence price movements.

Further Research

We recommend further investigation to solidify the hypothesis:

• Quantitative analysis: Employing statistical methods to test the correlation between observed data points and sentiment indicators.
• Qualitative analysis: Analyzing company news, analyst reports, and investor commentary to glean insights into specific drivers of sentiment.
• Comparative analysis: Benchmarking RDGL’s performance against peers and broader market indices to understand its relative positioning.

Conclusion: While preliminary, our analysis suggests a potential improvement in investor sentiment towards RDGL in 2023. We believe this warrants further investigation through a comprehensive approach incorporating the aforementioned considerations.

Disclaimer: The author is long RDGL. This research note is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.